The Best Power Forward of All Time (for now) ...

Instead of discussing this with our own analysis, why don't we just ask the main modern candidates, Barkley, Malone, and Duncan:

Charles Barkley, "Well Kenny, it is obviously the Big Fundamental.  Tim Duncan can do it all, and there ain't no one who can stop him, except maybe the Big Fella'.  Like I have said before, I think Tim is the best player in the league.  These young fella's gotta learn how to play like him."  Vote: Tim Duncan

Tim Duncan, "Wow.  This is a very difficult question.  There were so many pioneers for the position: Bob Pettit, Elvin Hayes, Kevin McHale.  I don't really think I fit in this discussion.  As for Chuck and Karl - well Charles was unbelievable.  I remember watching him on film trying to comprehend how he anticipated rebounds.  And Karl?  I had trouble guarding him when he was 40.  Perhaps I give the slight edge to Karl because of the trouble I had trying to guard him.  But they were all great players, all contributing to what I have learned in their own way.  It is a really tough call."  Vote: Karl Malone

Karl Malone, "Karl Malone!"  Vote: Karl Malone

Well lookie here.  Karl Malone wins 2-1 over Tim Duncan!

On The Draft - Round 1

1. Bucks take Andrew Bogut.  This is a solid pick.  Bogut probably won't be the best player out of this draft.  But quality big men are hard to come by, and he definitely fulfills that.  If he peaks his potential we get a slightly better Brad Miller I think. But they addressed an immediate need and got someone to solidify the front line. (A)

2. Hawks take Marvin Williams.  He is supposed to be the best out of this draft, though Paul, Gerald Green, Martell Webster, or even Danny Granger may be that in years to come.  Hopefully things pan out because they didn't address their need for a PG or a big man. (A-)

3. Jazz take Deron Williams after trading with Portland.  Perfect pick.  Apparently John Stockton was consulted on this scouting.  He plays to their pace and will be a great complement to Kirilenko, Boozer, and co. (A+)

4. Hornets take Chris Paul. (A)

5. Bobcats take Raymond Felton.  I feel as though, while this was a good pick, they could have done better at 5 - say take Granger.  Brevin Knight is alright for now, and they could have gotten a great all around swing  man. (B)

6. Blazers take Martell Webster.  Mature.  Awsome shooter.  Not Gerald Green but will give them an impact now.  (A-)

7. Toronto takes Charlie Villanueva.  Ok so many problems.  Why at 7?  Way too high for someone billed as having attitude problems.  Also, don't they already have Chris Bosh?  Moreover, couldn't they have picked up Gerald Green and developed him in two years to have a pretty legit Bosh-Green tandem to build around?  This was the surprise of the draft.  (D-)

8. Knicks take Channing Frye.  They promised they would take him and he was the best C on the board at this point.  Not the best pick, but its aiite.  (B)

9. Warriors take Ike Diogu.  Great fit for the Warriors.  Exactly what they needed.  (A)

10. Lakers take baby Shaq.  I don't know what to give this.  They won't get immediate impact that they want.  How long is Phil planning to stay?  Maybe he can be the next Shaq - but maybe he becomes just another fat albert.  (B?)

11. Orlando takes Fran Vazquez.  Hopefully if he bulks up, he will do decently next to Dwight Howard.  I do think maybe Sean May might have complemented Howard better, but Fran was rated as the best 4.  (B+)

12. Clips take Korolev on promise.  Bad to promise because they could have had Granger (3) or Antoine Wright (2).  Instead they take a younger project kid.  (B-)

13. Bobcats take Sean May.  It is an alright pick except with Felton (now) and Okafor and Brezec, these guys have the 1, 4, 5 covered pretty well with yougns.  A very versatile 3 would have been a better pick.  Or a future Tmac.  Instead they went with redundancy.  (C+)

14. Twolves take Rashad McCants.  If they are right that his poetry writing cured his attitude woes, this is a great pick.  (A-)

15. Nets take Antoine Wright.  I would have liked them picking up a bigger guy, but atleast this lets them get a guy to come in off the bench and have the capacity to stroke the 3.  (B)

16. Raptors take Joey Graham.  Alright so they got the best athlete now and they have another guy at the 3.  But they have something like 4 bigs now.  Why did they not gun for another PG?  Or a more talented Granger or Green?  (B-)

17. Pacers steal Granger.  Here is a kid projected as top 5 talent in this draft.  Good eyes Larry Bird.  (A+)

18. Celtics steal Green.  Here is a kid projected as top 5 talent in this draft.  Good eyes Danny Ainge.  (A+)

19. Grizzlies take Hakim Warrick.  I like this.  I love Warrick and though I had him going even lower, I thought he might be a victim of an (even greater) free fall.  Talent wise he should be better than top 19 only.  (A-)

20. Nuggets take Julius Hodge.  Fine, but they should have taken Garcia at the same spot because of Hodge's very weakness.  They could use some perimeter shooting (they arent really a threat from there).  Hodge, while very unselfish, is known for his shitty shooting.  Garcia is top3 NCAA shooter.  Do the math.  (B-)

21. Suns take Nate Robinson.  I think he is getting shipped to the Knicks, but otherwise it is like my wet dream! (A+)

22. Nuggets take Jarrett Jack.  If this is because of another trade with the Blazers, I don't know what the deal is.  (?)

23. Sac takes Francisco Garcia.  He fits perfectly into their rotation.  But I think they should have gone for a 4.  Wayne Simien is NBA ready.  (B+)

24. Rockets take Luther Head.  They addressed their need and took a vastly underrated pg.  (A)

25. Sonics take Petro.  I had him going a little higher to other teams.  I am confused about the Sonics because even if Jerome James and Vitaly Pot.... leave for free agency - they drafted Robert Swift last year at the same position.  So are they going to play together?  Or what?  (B)

26. Detroit takes Jason Maxiell.  Ok he is very Detroit-personalitied but I woulda liekd some back court help.  (B)

27. - 28. I do not know enough about these players.

29. Miami takes Wayne Simien.  Right on!!! I love it.  This is a great backup and/or replacement/upgrade for Udonis Haslem.  (A)

30. Knicks take David Lee.  Ok not the best PF left though he did test awsome athletically at chicago.  So who knows.  (B)

//edit: Apparently Martell Webster has received a promise in the lottery.  So has baby Shaq (Andrew Bynum).  Probably in the top 10 each actually.  Also, the Blazers apparently closed out a deal with the Jazz.  The short of it is that they swap picks here (and a few players - but that isn't relevant here).  So this probably means that the clause under my Jazz pick at #5 comes true.  Martell goes 5th to the Blazers.  Though there was even some talk of him going higher.  Hakim Warrick is supposedly gonna go much higher as well.  Wth.  Either he found a comfy home or found a really fast transition to the 3.  Either way, that is awsome cuz i really really really like Hakim Warrick.  Lol.  So much for my mock draft. Hahahha.  The neat thing is, while this draft probably won't garner too many superstuds (I doubt that Bogut will be the next Duncan, or even something that terrorizing .. though he will be solid - and I doubt that it will be like the 96 draft with 11 all-stars) at least it will have a lot lot lot lot of solid role players *knock on wood*.  And that will be pretty cool.  If things go that way, i.e. if some of the legit SG's from this draft become relegated to spot up shooters or whatever, then there is a great chance that the cream of the crop role players 5-6 years from now in this draft may be people found in the 2nd round (say a reformed Salim Stoudemire who comes in like a Brent Barry or Steve Kerr to knock down bombs).
 

NBA DRAFT 2005

My thoughts on tomorrow's draft.  I am pretty excited because I think this year will be pretty talented.  It won't be the draft of 1996 (11 All-Stars - AI, Kobe, Ray, Peja, Nash, etc.) but it won't be the draft of 1997 either (Duncan, TMac and 56 other guys...).

My hope is that we will get a handful of All-Stars (perhaps not consistently, but on occassion) out of these.

I think our weakest link is big men in this draft, though Bogut (currently booked as a 5, but I think should take the 4 like Duncan) looks like a stud.

But we definitely see great promise at the 1 (Deron W., Chris Paul, Ray Felton, Luther Head). 

The 2-3 looks pretty decent too.  Gerald Green out of high school is billed as a 'young TMac/Kobe'.  Maybe.  Marvin Williams is considered in similar regard, though apparently has a higher ceiling than GG.  Maybe.  The 2 is another deeper spot with a lot of variety.  We have people with DWade's games (getting to rim, not great shot), to a couple of scoring guards who have just unbelievable range (i.e. Salim Stoudemire, Martell Webster).  The 3 is probably our most NBA-ready spot, with 3-4 legitimate people ready to make a splash, not to mention if Hakim Warrick gets his shit together and makes the transition to the 3 over the summer.

Of course the lottery is always a wildcard.  Player's attitudes may not be right, they may not have a good work ethic (Rasheed Wallace).  Perhaps they can't handle the pressure.  Or maybe they never live up to their potential (Rasheed Wallace).  But the biggest wildcards for me are in the 4-5 (especially 4).  I am curious as to how these guys make the transition to the bump and grind spot - having to guard players like Tim Duncan, KG or even physical beasts like Dale Davis.

Anyways, here is my top 5 by position:

Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
1	Deron Williams	Gerald Green	Marvin Williams	Fran Vazquez	Andrew Bogut
2	Chris Paul	Martell Webster	Danny Granger	Ike Diogu	Channing Frye
3	Raymond Felton	Antoine Wright	Yaroslav Korolev	Sean May	Andrew Bynum
4	Luther Head	Rashad McCants	Joey Graham	Hakim Warrick	Johan Petro
5	Jarrett Jack	Francisco Garcia	Ersan Ilyasova	Martynas Andriuskevicius	Andray Blatche
6	Roko Ukic	Julius Hodge	Ryan Gomes	Charlie Villanueva	Mile Ilic
7	Nate Robinson	Salim Stoudemire	Matt Walsh	Wayne Simien	Dwyane Jones

Ok.  Yes yes I have sinned.  I know.  I put Deron Williams above Chris Paul.  I will get to that.

Descriptions by position:
PG
1. Deron Williams - Until recently, billed as the "no. 2 1-guard".  I take him at #1.  He is a bit larger than Paul, is the best on the ball defender in the draft, has dropped over 15 lb. and kept pace with Raymond Felton (fastest in the draft) in the workouts.  Meaning, this half-court set pg can run-and-gun if he likes, has awsome court vision.  Hopefully he has cured his athletic woes, and though he isn't a ridiculous shooter, it will do.

2. Chris Paul - Fast, awsome shooter, great court vision.  Kind of small and light - not necessarily the best defender and may not be able to mix it up inside.  Who knows if that will become a factor.  But he seems to be an awsome awsome awsome talent.

3. Raymond Felton - Fastest baseline to baseline.  Key for a run-and-gun team, though it is said that Deron can keep pace nowdays.  But a bit wild.  Also, just barely 6'0".

4. Luther Head - Ridiculously athletic. Has a sweet shot.  Turns over the ball a lot and could improve on court vision a bit.  But seriously, his ceiling may be similar to Paul or Williams'.  If he works.

5. Jarrett Jack - 6'4" and 200.  Strong.  Can get to the rim.  But turnover prone.  Think a less talented DWade.

6. Roko Ukic - He is 6'6" and plays point.  That is sweet shit.  Shooting is a bit off, but it is still in there.  Some people seem to have him above Jack.  Not I.

7. Nate Robinson - Just 5'8" and not really a pointguard (Starter at least) - but causes a lot of distortion - like Earl Boykins!  Oh also, filthy fast, runs a crazy wild fast offense, and is phenomenally athletic.  Please oh please let him get on the Suns.

SG
1. Gerald Green - He is a bit lightweight and considered immature.  This high school graduate is supposed to be the next Tmac/Kobe.  Great range, creates his own shot, handles the ball well, good court vision.

2. Martell Webster - Great basketball IQ, nba ready body, great shooter, can board. Mature.  But doesn't play much D and isn't horribly athletic.  But if I am a betting man, I say that any high school kid with an NBA ready body and a discipline to get a good shot, especially one considered very mature, will definitely listen to coaches and start playing D.

3. Antoine Wright - Improved from 37% shooting season to better than 50%.  Good bball IQ, can control and shoot well (now).  Not good at FTs, though can hit 3s, and do most things.  But not horribly athletic, and may buckle under pressure?

4. Rashad McCants - Most talented jr. but a little short (6'3" to 6'4"), not the best of defenders.  But he gets to the rim at will.  Questionable attitude, but can hit the 3bomb.  Will he be a 1 or a 2?  No handles for a 1.  No size for a 2?  But very talented.  Puts him at the 4 spot.  But Hodge whipped his ass at a recent workout when Rashad got food poisoned or something.  *shrug*

5. Francisco Garcia - Great ft and longrange shooter - but can disappear a lot in games.  Is tall but a bit light.  Inconsistent - probably off the bench, for most of his career.  A point-forward shooter.

6. Julius Hodge - I don't like 2's that can't stroke it.  People have him up at 3-4 because of his handles and shit.  But hey, then bill him as a 1, not a 2guard.  I don't buy him that high as a scoring guard.  Though he is very unselfish he can't shoot but handles well and can see the court very well.  Disappears in big games.  Should have been a 1.  2's gotta be able to score.

7. Salim Stoudemire - This one makes me sad.  Really really sad.  He has unbelievable range.  I mean you know the lebron commercial?  Yah here is the kid who could actually do that.  No cgi needed folks.  Dropped the 3 at over 50% last yr, but if you watch the film, he takes it like 6-9 feet farther back than college length.  So I am talking Chauncey 3's here.  But only 6'1" so a little small.  He isn't as talented as AI so probably will have to move to the 1.  Or be a spot up shooter.  He is a pretty good defender to boot.  So why isn't he higher?  He has horrible attitude problems (pushed Iguodala out of Arizona last year).  And Iguodala is tight.  Probably best defender in draft - hopefully will become the Bowen of his generation (with offensive skills and mad dunking abilities).  Meaning that fricking Stoudemire doesn't play nice .  Also, he can be very streaky at times (like most shooters - i mean brent barry went on a 3 yr vacation at one pt).

SF
1. Marvin Williams - I claim he is a 3.  Prove me wrong.  Anyways, he will go 2nd in the draft (or maybe 1st) - has great talent at nearly everything.  Let's move on.

2. Danny Granger - Here is another guy I like a lot.  Like Scottie Pippen.  44% clip from 3pt range.  Can play 1-4.  Even better, can guard 1-4!  Gets 9 boards a game. Legit shot blocker.  Oh yah.  And he is a senior.  Good experience!

3. Yaroslav Korolev - Apparently has a promise from the Clippers.  He can handle the ball, can post up, can shoot.  He is only 17 thought - but NBA ready.

4. Joey Graham - Some rank him at 3.  Screw that shit.  Here is why.  Really ridiculously buff.  But very fast.  He can post up.  He can silk in the 3.  (shoots that at collegiate level a notch under 48%)  Not a fantastic boarder nor blocker, but isn't a bad on the ball defender.  Probably one of the best wing defenders in the draft.  But he disappears sometimes in big games, and his work ethic is questionable.

5. Ersan Ilyasova - just cuz of his bum ankle.  he is supposed to be more NBA ready than Korolev.  (he is only 19).

6. Ryan Gomes - cuz i say so. He did well in workouts mainly as far as i have read.

7. Matt Walsh - well i like his sharpshooting

PF
1. Fran Vazquez - Grabs Orebs, has a 15 ft jumper, great shot blocker - 6'11" and 230 - has to bulk up.  I can't really compare him to anyone off the top of my head.  From the little film I have seen, I have seen flashes of Duncan-esque moves.  But just flashes.  And he is way not as strong.

2. Ike Diogu - I like Ike.  6-9 and 250.  Has a 7'4" wingspan (longer than Tayshaun).  Great boarder and solid blocker.  But disappears in big games?  Has developed a decent/legit nba 3pt shot apparently.  Shoots 80% from the stripe and gets there a lot.  But he cancelled a workout and is concerned about being drafted.  I am confused.  Very very volatile stock.  Some have him dropping out of the first round.  I say nay!

3. Sean May - Lots have him at 2 over Ike Diogu.  But from what I have seen and read, here is my take.  He has Ike's athleticism (not great).  But lacks all of his upside.  Not as long, doesn't have an NBA 3, etc.  He can probably get in there and bang well off the bench in coming years, probably better than Ike.  But what he has in stability, he lacks in potential.

4. Hakim Warrick - High flying fun.  I love him.  But I honestly think he has to play the 3.  That said, he is this high just cuz.  He is pretty good overall.  Needs to become a much better perimeter defender though, and ball controll and could make a very scary 3.

5. Martynas Andriuskevicius - Used to be a favorite at the 4 spot.  Suns wanted him at 7 last year.  But he is 7'3" and just 230.  Very Shawn Bradley.  *shudder*.  Infinitely more talented - but still.

6. Charlie Villanueva - Remember when he was one of those huge high school studs.  Then how he flopped in that public workout after high school.  Two years later, after ups and downs, people know that he has really high potential.  But will he be able to cut it in the NBA?  Bernie Bickerstaff seems to think so.  But he lacks work ethic.

7. Wayne Simien - He is a little light and a little short.  Very NBA ready.  He will go in the first round, perhaps I have slightly underrated him.

C
1. Andrew Bogut - Ok.  He dropped 22 pts and 18 boards on Duncan in the Olympics.  Enough said.

2. Channing Frye - Legit shot blocker and very solid big man.  4 yr experience, like Granger. 6-11, 250.  Disappears in big games, so-so rebounding.

3. Andrew Bynum - Baby shaq.  7'0" and 300.  Raw.  But not bad looker.

4. Johan Petro - Rep for being soft.  Very athletic and large though.  A bit light.

5. Andray Blatche - Ok.  I am probably the only one in the world to put this guy here.  A) He is billed as a 4 by most.  B) He is not on the top5 for the 4's by most.  But at 6'11" and a bit light, though lot of skill, I think he makes a pretty good 5.  The Celtics, Nets have shown interest.  So have the Heat.  He is only 19 but his workouts have been remarkable.  Not NBA ready though.  A long term project.  Oh by the way.  He is considered a poor man's KG and can shoot the 3.

6. Mile Ilic - He is usually higher on the list but I put Andray in.  Soft but very skilled.  Impressed the Heat, Nuggets.  Only 20.  In my opinion he should have waited another year before going to the draft.

7. Dwyane Jones - 6'10" and 240s.  Slightly shorter, less talented Andray Blatche.  Better immediate help but a much lower ceiling.  Probably a good shot blocker coming out of the 2nd round.

Lastly, my draft prediction.
Well there is buzz that the Jazz are going to try to get the Blazers' #3 pick.  And a few others have made offers, but the Jazz seem to be in the lead.  But I am going to go to say that they do make the trade, but not specify who.  I will assume it will be someone who does not want to pass up on a pg, for they are the ones desparate to get to the 3 spot for Deron or Chris Paul. 

Oh and throw in the thing about the new age limit.  Meaning now is the last chance that these guys can sit and develop these players.  So all the under 19 prospects look that much cooler.

Anyways ... here are my guesses.  Most will be wrong, but if many of these players make it to half their potential, this draft will be one of the stronger mid-first->second round drafts ever.  Because there is a lot of redundancy in talent here I think.

Oh yah.  And these are who I think people will take, not who they should take.  I think Luther Head will be heavily overlooked, for example.  And since most teams draft for necessity, some good talent will plummet and some so so will rise.  Meh - let's see how this goes.

1 (Bucks). Andrew Bogut, 20, 7'0", 250, C/PF: Duncan meets Vlade in this strong post presence who can really pass the ball.

2 (Hawks). Marvin Williams, 18, 6'8", 230, SF: Though they have been considering it, they won't pass up MW for Deron or Paul.  Too great a risk.

3 (Blazers - will trade this though). Deron Williams, 20, 6'3", 210, PG: Whomever trades the Blazers for this pick take DW over CP in my opinion (as they should).  If the Blazers keep the pick, they take Gerald Green.

4 (Hornets). Chris Paul, 20, 6'1", 178, PG: The Hornets replace their lost Baron Davis.  (Of course this assumes they don't trade up or down.  They need a 3, and Danny Granger might look good for them.)

5 (Bobcats). Danny Granger, 22, 6'9", 225, PF: Though Bernie Bickerstaff and the Bobcats seem impressed with Charlie Villanueva, I think he wants immediate impact (as indicated by his Emeka Okafor pick).  I think he takes Granger over Charlie or Gerald Green.

6 (Jazz). Channing Frye, 22, 6'11", 245, C: Ok.  If the Jazz trade with the Blazers, Blazers take Gerald Green at 6 instead.  Or Martell Webster if Green is taken at 5.  If not, the Jazz will be left deciding between Fran Vazquez, who they loved, and Channing Frye.  But recently teams have begun to sell on Vazquez.

7 (Raptors). Gerald Green, 19, 6'7", 192, SF: They do the T-Mac dance all over again.  But if Green is taken by now, this screws everything up.  I am not sure that Martell Webster gets enough love from Toronto.  So I see either Frye (he will be left over then), or Ray Felton, or Vazquez going. 

8 (Knicks). Fran Vazquez, 22, 6'11", 230, PF: Well if the Jazz take Fran, these guys take Frye.  But if the Jazz trade up and pick up a pg, then they take Frye also.  I believe they prefer Frye over Vazquez.

9 (Warriors). Ike Diogu, 21, 6'9", 255, PF: I don't see him falling out of the first round.

10 (LA Lakers). Raymond Felton, 20, 6'0", 200, PG: Huge upgrade over Chucky Atkins.  Though I am not sure what Phil would do.  He likes shooters.  He might gun for Martell Webster if he is still around.

11 (Magic). Martell Webster, 18, 6'7", 235, SG: He is a steal here I think.  They have liked him for a while now.  NBA ready, mature, and can really gun it.  But they might also go for a big man to complement Dwight Howard.  Sean May - not Warrick because of redundancy with Hill.

12 (Clippers). Yaroslav Korolev, 17, 6'9", 215, SF: Mike Dunleavy Sr. says he plays like his son.  And add in the new age limit rule.  If you don't take him this year, you can't take guys like him next year.  He is young.  Can be molded.  Can do most everything.  And best of all, he is NBA ready.  Or they can take Antoine Wright who Dunleavy liked as well.

13 (Bobcats). Jarrett Jack, 21, 6'3", 200, PG: If Felton is still around, they grab him.  No question.  So this all depends on that Laker pick at 10.  But I personally think they should take Roko or Luther Head instead.

14 (T'wolves). Antoine Wright, 21, 6'7", 210, SG: It is almost consensus that he goes here.  Immediate impact and replaces Spre.  The could go with Rashad McCants.  But maybe that is a huge risk.

15 (Nets).  Sean May, 21, 6'8", 260, PF: Tough heavy body in the middle to complement Nenad Kristic.  If the Magic don't take him at 11, I think he goes at 15.  If he is gone, Warrick definitely wouldn't do badly in this uptempo team.  He actually fits better than May.  But I think they need the weight and go with May.

16 (Raptors). Roko Ukic, 21, 6'6", 183, PG: Ok.  They might also take Andrew Bynum (baby shaq).  Imagine taking baby shaq and kobe in one draft?  But I think it is more than likely that they sell on two risks and take one surefire quarterback.

17 (Pacers). Martynas Andriuskevicius, 19, 7'3", 230, PF/C: Because he is a project, and Bird and co. have a reputation of waiting on (and developing) projects, he will be drafted and they will wait for a few years.  They might take Andrew Bynum though.

18 (Celtics). Andrew Bynum, 17, 7'0", 300, C: Baby Shaq gives them much needed size and strength inside.  They have a couple of other talented youngsters as well.  And a decent mix of vets.  Could be interesting.  Otherwise they could go with either Joey Graham or Johan Petro.  Especially if Petro is around.

19 (Grizzlies). Julius Hodge, 21, 6'7", 205, SG: McCants is probably better.  But they did similar in workouts and Rashad is supposed to have attitude problems.  Knowing that the Grizz ain't a fan of the attitude, I say they take hodge.  Garcia is just a shooter, they want more.  A ball handler like Hodge.  Though if any PF better than Warrick is on the board, they take him.

20 (Nuggets). Joey Graham, 22, 6'7", 217, SF: This is a steal.  He was the best athlete at the Chicago workouts.

21 (Phoenix). Johan Petro, 19, 7'1", 250, C: He is a long term project.  I think with the addition of Thomas and the progression of Steven Hunter, they can afford to develop Petro for another year or two.  By then they actually have to be concerned about more 3ballers.

22 (Nuggets). Francisco Garcia, 23, 6'7", 190, SG: They need a SG.  Here is a guy who is a great shooter and ft shooter.  He has height and lift and can get off a shot over most guards.  I say they pass on McCants because Furious George won't wanna deal.  But hey, if he can tame him, who knows.

23 (Kings). Rashad McCants, 20, 6'4", 200, SG: This is sad cuz this guy should be top10.  Yet he is so low.  Attitude problems, etc.

24 (Rockets). Luther Head, 22, 6'3", 285, PG: See they could definitely bulk up their front court going with Charlie, Wayne Simien, or whomever has fallen through the cracks.  But they also need ball handling needs and Sura isn't enough.  I think that their noticing of a guy who can defend on the perimeter and shoot with the best of them will push them to pull the trigger for head.  I also think he is better than a #24.  But yah Wayne Simien is a real possibility.

25 (Sonics). Nate Robinson, 21, 5'8", 180, PG: This will be fun.  If it happens.  It will be real fun.

26 (Pistons). Ersan Ilyasova, 18, 6-9, 220, SF: Ankle injuries place him under Korolev.  At 26 I think this is a steal.  He, like most Euros, can shoot outside.  But he is very solid inside offensively.  More importantly, he plays with a defensive toughness as well that the Nowitzki's of old lack.  Therefore, considering there will probably be a bit more outside shooting once Brown is gone and Dumars wants to promote Darko, and considering that he is probably a steal at 26 - as he would have been lottery if he hadn't broken his ankle - I think they take him here. 

27 (Jazz). Wayne Simien, 22, 6-9, 255, PF: /Monta Ellis, 19, 6'3", 175, PG: Wayne Simien is the most NBA ready PF but he is injury prone and not a great shot blocker.  Monta Ellis - I don't even know why.  It is just that I cannot think of anyone else to place here.  And I know Jerry Sloan wouldn't be a huge fan of either.  But still.  I don't know.  Besides, Ellis did poorly at the Chicago physicals and yet GMs say (I have read) that he may show up in the mid-first rounds (though I think he is easily a 2nd rounder).  *shrug*  As for Simien, maybe simply because they can.  Because he is a pretty decent backup for a Boozer, and he may be a "steal" at 27.  Who knows.

28 (Spurs). Charlie Villanueva, 20, 6'10", 240, PF: Hopefully Pops can whip him into shape.  He is a top10 on potential as well.  But hey, shit happens.  Perhaps being on a potential dynastic team with perhaps the greatest player ever to play his position will help motivate him.  He gives them that Malik Rose-ness that I feel they miss.  He can bang.  Of course, him slipping this low seems ridiculous if you think about how great he was supposed to be as of 3 years ago.

29 (Heat). Hakim Warrick, 22, 6'8", 218, SF/PF: Ok.  This is ridiculously low for a Final Four superstar.  But I had no idea where else he would go.  First, most other players, because they had set attributes, fit somewhere.  He is an enigma.  Can't do the 4 (probably not strong enough) in the big leagues.  But not skilled enough (yet) for the 3.  No mock draft has him this low, and yet I think it screws everything else off more if I actually place him somewhere higher.  But hey, I would love him to come off the bench for the Heat!  =)

30 (Knicks). Mile Ilic, 20, 7'1", 240, C: Knicks, Nuggs, and Heat have shown interest.  In addition to Fran Vazquez, this should help them beef up the front line.  Make up for dumping Thomas.  With QRich as a kick out, they should definitely do better next year.  Now if they only dumped Stephon Marbury, they would probably be decent.

Wow.  In hindsight some of that draft just looks insane in my head.  Some go wayy too high.  Some go wayy too low.  And I still left out the best shooter in the draft (Salim Stoudemire), the poor man's kg (Andray Blatche), and many others.  I think there will be a few stars but a lot of pretty reasonable lower number draft picks no matter which way you cut it.  Meaning, some of the teams get great picks at the top of the 2nd round, and really good teams like the Heat and the Spurs even have a chance to pick up some pretty legit talent!

Anyways, I am excited.

NBA FINALS GAME 7 SPURS v. PISTONS

Aside from maybe a tid bit here or there on the draft - this is my last one.  While I am thrilled that the Spurs won, I can't say that I am not sad that the season ended.  I have to wait a good 4 more months for everything to start up again.

On to the game.

We all know the boxscore - for example. TD 25 pts, 11 boards, 3 ast, 2 blk on 37% fg and 80% ft.

But the boxscore is somewhat arbitrary in terms of items they select to depict.  For example, Russell was probably the best defender of his time, and swatted away so much but not a single "Block" was ever recorded.  Moreover, boxscores tend to not show well the defensive impact of players.  They also tend to undervalue big men, not realizing that they have screen-assists, and that they serve to be the anchor of both inside-out offenses and most strong defenses.

So to adjust for this, we can just look at an "alternative" boxscore - nothing complicated. 

We will just look at unassisted, assisted shots made (including getting to the line), "assists" - which includes passes to players who are about to score and get fouled, screens - which are like 'big men assists' - these are decisive screens that are the causal reason for the score, pass2assists which is a player instead of taking a horrible crosscourt pass - he swings it to a guy up top to swing it to the open man - he too should be credited, Offensive rebounds. 

We also look, on the defensive end, at blocks, steals, help and own defense (which are 2 things that get recorded every time a player decisively changes/impedes an opponent's shot).

Qtr1	TD	MG	TP	RH	BrBo	BrBa	CB	Rip	BW	RW	McD	Tay
Off
Astd				2				2
Unastd	2	2		1, ‘1’		1	1		3	1	1
“ast”	1					1	1
Screen	1								1			1
P2ast
Oreb	1			‘1’					1
Def
Blk	1							1	1	1
Help	1								1
Own	1				1					1
Stl				‘2’	‘1’	1

At the end of the first, Spurs led 18-16.  Players to note were Duncan, Horry, and Big Ben.  Also note that Manu and Chauncey each got 2 fouls early meaning both offenses were mildly out of sync.  On the qtr, Duncan effectively had 4 points, 2 assists (ast+scrn), 1 Oreb, 1 blk, 1 help D, 1 own D.  When he sat towards the end and Manu came out for a while, it was Horry they went to who showed up, forcing 2 turn overs, getting to the offensive boards, getting to the line, and hitting 3 shots.  Horry led the team in scoring after qtr1.

On the Detroit end, notice the cluster of defensive stats going through Rip, Big Ben, and Sheed.  But Big Ben was the story with 3 buckets, 1 assist (scrn), 1 Oreb, 1 blk, 1 help d.  Despite shooting 38% without Chauncey, the Pistons were in it, down by 2.

Qtr2

TD

MG

TP

RH

BrBo

BrBa

CB

Rip

BW

RW

McD

Tay

Off

Astd

1

1

3

1

1

Unastd

2

1

1, ‘1’

‘1’

1

2

1

“ast”

4

2

Screen

1

1

P2ast

1

Oreb

1

Def

Blk

Help

1 (pr)

1

1 (cb)

1 (mb)

Own

1

1 (td)

Stl

McDyess showed why he was the 2nd pick in 1995 this quarter.  He scored, had 3 effective assists (2 dimes+scrn), got offensive boards, and did a solid job changing Duncan's shot.  Billups, playing with 2 fouls, had 4 or 5 dimes (i feel like I missed one, should go watch the film again) and ran the offense smoothly.

Duncan was the only story here, but a mild one at that.  2 baskets, 2 effective assists (scrn+p2a), 1 great help D on Prince.  While it looks like Parker came alive, his shooting was pretty erratic.  Ultimately, the defensive presence was lacking for the Spurs (as was the offensive presence in a way), and Detroit led at the half 39-38.  Oh yah, and there was a pretty little Campbell to Hunter assist right at the end!  Anyone see that?

Notes at the half include Duncan going 4-9 for 8 pts, Horry and Parker being the only Spurs to go to the line thus far, Sheed picking up his 3rd foul due to Timmy's aggressiveness (and Big Ben and McDyess their 2nd a piece - mostly all on Duncan).  Big Ben was the leading scorer at the break with 12!

Qtr3

TD

MG

TP

RH

BrBo

BrBa

CB

Rip

BW

RW

McD

Tay

Off

Astd

1 (td sc)

1

1

Unastd

6 (3 and1s, 2 18fters)

2, ‘1’

1

‘2’

1 (and1)

1

“ast”

1

1

1

Screen

1

P2ast

Oreb

3 (1 diving)

Def

Blk

1 (bw)

3 (td)

Help

5

1 (td)

1 (mg)

Own

1

1

1 (tp)

Stl

1

1

At one point here, about 5:58 left through the 4th, Duncan had not scored in nearly 14 minutes.  He had missed quite a few in a row, but also hadn't had the ball fed to him for huge stretches.  At this point, they were down by 9 (largest Piston lead and largest lead for any team in this game).

Duncan came alive.  He called for the ball on every play and went on a bezerk rampage, scoring 10 pts nearly straight in just 2 or 3 minutes (12 for the qtr - hitting 2 17 footers).  He was fouled on 2 of them and went to the line a 3rd time, making all of his free throws for the quarter.  He also got an effective assist, setting a horrendously strong screen on the Wallaces clearing the lane for an easy Ginobili dunk.  Not to mention, his hunger for the ball included 3 Orebs in the qtr, one of them a long dive to the ground on which Chauncey tripped and landed on Timmy's head.  He also drew the 3rd foul on Big Ben, the 4th on McDyess, while Ginobili drew the 4th on Sheed.  Getting these guys into foul trouble no doubt helped him in his rampage.

But we haven't even mentioned why he was such a behemoth in the quarter.  He came alive on defense, forcing his opponents to change and miss 5 of their shots, including Prince, Rip, Billups, Hunter, and McDyess.  Essentially, for every player who played major minutes aside from the non-shooting Big Ben, Duncan screwed with their shooting.

Clearly playing inside-out, going to Duncan every play in the 2nd half of the 3rd, paid huge dividends.  For one thing, they quickly came back from their near 10pt deficit to a few pt lead.  Yes, Duncan did not shoot particularly well this quarter.  Every other quarter he shot 40% or 50% but this quarter he shot around 33%.  But it didn't matter for a couple of reasons.  First, 2 were putbacks, meaning that the misses are overinflated - they are part of the same possession.  So notice that the shooting should have been 40% as well, but we look at % by attempt not by possession, which is skewed against bigs.  That is why I prefer pts per possession for bigs, instead of necessarily pts per attempt.  Second, the hyper-aggressiveness was what allowed Duncan to draw a bunch of the fouls on Sheed, McDyess, and Big Ben - which later allowed them to close it out down the stretch.  Third, notice on the film that because he was playing so aggresively, there were a lot of non-calls.  Now you will think, what - but McDyess, Big Ben, Sheed picked up so many fouls when playing Duncan!  To which I reply, precisely.  The refs weren't about to foul out 3 bigs in a game7 of the Finals!  Are you crazy!?  To a degree, it allowed them to be slightly more aggressive in that light.  The fouls they were called on were huge and obvious hacks, but very rarely in the 3rd did they get called on things like little shoves in the back, etc.  Let us not take away the great defense though.  Big Ben annihalated Duncan for a while.  Quite quite impressive.

But fourth, and this is the one I have been harping on for ever, is that the the percentage of your PG doesn't matter as much as his activity.  Because a penetrating pg causes the defense to try to anticipate the activity in the paint and forces the 4 other guys to try to collapse, or atleast think about it.  This has a distortion effect on the defense, and the payoff for the offense is that everyone else will get better looks for the rest of the game because the defense becomes so concerned in slowing down the active player.  It is why Wade, Jordan, Shaq, Duncan, AI could shoot really low percentages and lead their team to a great win by their activity, while people who don't penetrate as much - McGrady, Kobe, Ray - can't do that.  It is why it is a huge added bonus to have a PG who is very efficient (like steve nash)!  But most of all, it is why your 4 or 5, if they are one of the best in history (like Shaq or Duncan) should also be your point guard - i.e. play inside-out!!!  And that is what happened.

Ultimately, despite a Hunter shot towards the last seconds of the qtr, San Antonio erased the 9pt deficit and knotted it up at 57 a piece.

Qtr4

TD

MG

TP

RH

BrBo

BrBa

CB

Rip

BW

RW

McD

Tay

Off

Astd

2

3 (td sc)

1

1 (td)

Unastd

‘1’ (with 62 sec left)

‘2’ (with 22 and 7 sec left)

‘1’ (16 sec left)

2, ‘1’ (with 2 min left)

1 (and 1 with 10.1 sec)

4 (1 3 with 23 sec left)

“ast”

2

1

1

Screen

4

P2ast

Oreb

1

1

1

Def

Blk

1 (cb)

Help

1 (rw, 20 sec)

Own

2 (Rw)

1 (rip)

1 (Mcd)

1 (mg)

Stl

1, ‘1’

1, ‘1’ (td)

1 (td), ‘1’ (td)

What can I say.  This was a beautifully executed quarter.  While in the 3rd, Duncan carried both the offense and the defense, in the 4th - the defense was truly a crisp, team effort.  And the offense properly ran through their very talented 4.  Obviously that meant the win.

Duncan, Manu, Horry, and Bowen all came up huge down the stretch.  As for the Pistons, Chauncey was decent, and Rasheed seemed like the only real player playing.

The Spurs played inside out again, and it lead to some of the more beautiful plays that I can remember.  It was very reminiscient of Shaq in fact.  They fed the low post, and Duncan would back up.  I counted 4 times when he drew a "quadruple team" meaning, while the 4 didn't completely collapse on him, they came in about 4-5 feet.  Duncan then would back up even more and prepare to spin.  When all the help (2 semi-helpers, and 1 extra man to double) closed in, he would just dish it back to a spot-up shooter with his right hand, just like Shaq did with Fisher and Fox and Horry all those years.  He did this play a good 4-5 times in the qtr, though his men only hit on it 2 times (Ginobili and Bowen for 3s).  Once, he even grabbed the missed 3 by Horry and backed down again to the low post, fed it right to Bowen for the easy 3.

But the best part about playing inside out was probably when he tossed it out, then set up a strong screen to clear either the lane, or a nice spot on the court, for Ginobili to get an open look.  In fact, all of Ginobili's fg's of this qtr were either assisted directly by a Duncan feed or by a Duncan screen.

Combine this with the 20 foot jumper that he hit, the dunk he made to open the qtr, and the fts toward the end, and he had 3 buckets, 6 effective assists, 1 offensive rebound, 2 huge denials of rasheed to score (though sheed still had his way at the end), and a whole lot of distortion of the detroit defense making it easier for the rest of the Spurs to knock down their shots.  The best part was, Larry Brown, who in 2 years had not overtly decided to double any big man, started calling the doubles on Duncan (and the "quadruples" as well) towards the end!

Of course, that 7 point lead at times started to falter, and Horry, Ginobili, and Bowen did their awsome share to close it out.  Horry became a defensive beast, causing a Sheed miss with 20 sec left, denying a McDyess shot, and coming up with a steal and a forced turnover off Rip with 1:31 remaining.  Not to mention icing the game hitting 2 fts with 16 seconds remaining.  Likewise, Ginobili iced the game with 4 fts in the last 22 seconds.  But the most brilliant play of the game was perhaps Horry's crosscourt inbound pass to Ginobili who got to the opposing basket with just a few seconds remaining, but chose to wear down the clock, and instead of the easy dunk, began to run around in circles around the court before the Pistons could chase him down and foul him!  Hillarious and ingenious on the part of both players.

And it is only fitting that Bowen had a spectacular block on a Chauncey 3 with just enough time that the Chauncey 3 would have made it a one bucket game, but instead the Spurs were able to extend it to a 7 pt lead and close out.  Bruce did a fantastic job hounding Billups this game, giving him only 8 looks and 3-8 shooting.

The only guy who really came alive in the 4th was sheed who hit 3/4 initially and then hit a huge 3 with like 23 seconds remaining.  He also forced a TO from TD and stole the ball once on a strip.  But ultimately that was too little too late.  Poor poor 'Sheed.  Ain't gonna get another 'Ship.

Anyways, thanks to a very heady defensive quarter by the Spurs, in addition to properly running their well thought-out offense, led by Timmy and supported nicely by Manu, Horry, and Bowen, they came back from down 9 with a 16 point swing to winning by 7, 81-74.

A random note: Detroit did not foul in the 4th quarter until 2:19 remaining.  This from a team that basically forced 4 turn overs on Duncan in that qtr.  Pretty impressive, no?

It is pretty sweet that there was this battle between the previous two championships and it was rather fitting that it went to a game 7.  I thought the Spurs would win in 6, but my gut always feared a Piston 6 game victory.  After the Ginobili collapse of game 6, and the Duncan collapse of game 5 (though an Horry bail out) I was pretty sure that my worst fears had come through and that the Pistons would take it on the road.  But Horry, Brent, and Ginobili stepped up huge - and despite not having that 37/16 or whatever game to eliminate the lakers two years ago - Duncan showed why this team is his and why things should run through him (though that wasn't his intention, but you get the idea).

Voices:
Larry Brown: "Duncan was spectacular ... and the better team won."
Tim Legler: "Tim Duncan took over the game after .  Without Rasheed Wallace, Tim Duncan demanded the ball every play.  Credit Tony Parker who had great entry passes to Tim Duncan.  When a great player plays well, realize that role players are more confident and play better.  Also, the coaching move of the series was putting Bruce Bowen on Chauncey Billups."
Bill Walton: "Tim Duncan is the anti-superhero [referring to humility].  San Antonio was lucky because it won a game with only 4 players playing well.  Tayshaun Prince should have been a huge factor ... and it is difficult to see Antonion McDyess play so hard and not get a ring."
Greg Anthony: "The turning point was when Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess picked up their 4th fouls.  Tayshaun could not contain Tim Duncan.  Also, when Chauncey Billups picks up 2 early fouls, as he is the catalyst for the Pistons, it disrupted their offense."
Big Ben: "We let one slip away."
Rip: "Tony is not going to grab and hold me [unlike Bowen].  Credit the Spurs.  They made plays, hit 3s. We gotta take the good with the bad."
Robert Horry: "It's like apples and oranges.  You can't compare the championships.  It is a special feeling because of how down I was on myself after the series against the Lakers last year."
Pop: "I've been so lucky.  I have been given 2 model citizens and hall of famers in the lottery [referring to Robinson and Duncan]."
Bill Simmons: "Tim Duncan played the finest game of his career Thursday night, controlling the 2nd half as the only competent big man against a much bigger team."
Tim Duncan: "I was nervous for 4 days.  I mean it was the most nervous I have ever felt with anything to do with basketball.  Why?  Because I am getting old man!  Haha.  No really, no idea.  I didn't have the greatest series - just continued to push.  [When asked about 27 shots, does that make you a ballhog?] That's what I wanted to do!  Just kidding.  Pops said go out there and take 30.  I just wanted to be assertive.  [When asked what championship means the most]  Well, because it is here and now, and a few other reasons, this is probably the best feeling I have had in a championship.  [When asked by Hollinger about Pop] Pop is great at preparing us - praising us when needed and calling us pieces of ... whatever ... when needed.  He is, not taking anything away from Larry Brown, he is the best in the league."

And with that, Duncan claims his 3rd Finals MVP and rightfully takes his place along with Jordan, Magic, and Shaq as the only people with 3 or more Finals MVP trophies - (and the first to get that new model).  You know, that list could arguably be the best 1, 2, 4, and 5 (though I am slightly inclined to put Stockton ahead of Magic and Hakeem ahead of Shaq - but hey those are my own biases).  The best 3-forward?  Bird.  No question.  And not far behind at all with 2 Finals MVP.

And that, my friends, Magic, Mike, Larry, Timmy, and Shaq as your 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 would give you one helluva starting five!